Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg | Prediction & 55% Win

Match Preview

Borussia Dortmund hosts SC Freiburg on April 26, 2026, with Dortmund chasing the Bundesliga summit while Freiburg pushes for a European spot. Dortmund sit narrowly ahead in the league, holding a slim points advantage over their closest rivals, making this home fixture vital to consolidate their lead. Freiburg, meanwhile, are within striking distance of European qualification, adding pressure to their away performances.

Dortmund have scored 9 goals in their last 4 Bundesliga games, showcasing attacking efficiency led by striker Haaland, who remains a key threat. However, their defense has shown vulnerability, conceding 7 goals in the same span, highlighting a potential weakness Freiburg might exploit. Dortmund’s home form is strong, with 3 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches at Signal Iduna Park, scoring at a rate of 2.1 goals per game.

Freiburg’s away record is less convincing, with only 1 clean sheet in their last 7 away Bundesliga matches and conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game on the road. Their recent form includes 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 outings, reflecting inconsistency. Key player Grifo remains influential in attack, but the team’s defensive lapses could cost them here.

The edge goes to Dortmund due to home dominance, superior goal-scoring form, and Haaland’s impact. Freiburg’s defensive frailties and shaky away record tip the scales. Dortmund’s implied win probability stands near 55%, reflecting a moderate but clear home advantage.

Team Form

Dortmund’s recent five-match form shows resilience with four unbeaten games before a loss, maintaining strong goal output. Freiburg’s form is patchy, reflecting defensive instability especially away from home.

Freiburg’s defense has leaked goals in 3 of their last 5, making them vulnerable against Dortmund’s attacking trio. Dortmund’s ability to convert chances at home remains a decisive factor.