26 April 2026
Stade Océane, Le Havre, Ligue 1


Le Havre vs Metz Prediction | 62% Home Win Chance · Lineups
Match Preview
Le Havre host Metz at Stade Océane aiming to end an eight-match winless streak. The home side sits 14th in Ligue 1, comfortably four points above the relegation zone, but their offensive output remains underwhelming with just 25 goals in 30 matches. Striker Diallo leads their attack, but the team has struggled to convert chances consistently.
Le Havre’s home form is notably stronger than their overall record, boasting five wins, seven draws, and only three losses at Stade Océane. Conversely, Metz’s away record is dire — one win, two draws, and 12 losses on the road. The visitors have conceded 66 goals this season, including 43 in their last 20 matches, signaling defensive vulnerabilities.
Metz are in a deep slump with only one win in their last 20 games, while Le Havre have drawn frequently, reflecting a cautious approach. Metz’s offensive struggles are less pronounced but overshadowed by their porous defense. With Le Havre’s better home stats and Metz’s alarming away form, the edge lies with the hosts, who should capitalize on Metz’s defensive fragility to secure a narrow victory.
Team Form
| Team | Last 5 | Goals For | Goals Against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | DLDLD | 3 | 7 |
| Metz | LDLLL | 2 | 10 |
Le Havre’s recent results show a pattern of draws and losses, highlighting their inability to close games despite a solid home setup. Their scoring rate is low, averaging just 0.6 goals in the last five matches.
Metz’s form is worse, with four defeats and only one draw in the last five. Defensive lapses are a major problem, conceding an average of two goals per game over this period, and away performances have been particularly poor.
Betting Odds
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.80 |
Le Havre’s odds around 2.10 offer reasonable value given Metz’s poor away record and defensive issues.
Our Prediction
Le Havre hold a clear edge due to superior home form and Metz’s defensive frailties; expect a narrow home win with goals from both sides likely.
Best Bet
- Home & Over 1.5 goals (≈2.40) — Le Havre’s attacking struggles are offset by Metz’s defensive vulnerability, making a home win with at least two goals likely.
- Both teams to score: Yes (≈1.85) — Metz tend to concede heavily but still manage to find the net occasionally, so both sides scoring is a realistic outcome.
- Draw No Bet: Home (≈1.65) — Covers Le Havre if the match ends level, providing a safer option given their home edge and Metz’s poor away form.
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Bet Strategy
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