FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München | Prediction · 74% Win Chance

Match Preview

FC St. Pauli hosts Bayern München on April 11, 2026, with the home side entrenched in the relegation playoff zone, struggling to climb out of danger. They have scored 52% of their goals from set pieces, underlining a reliance on dead-ball situations. Defensively, St. Pauli has shown vulnerabilities, conceding 9 goals in their last 4 matches, which compounds their relegation threat.

Bayern München, on the other hand, are in dominant form, unbeaten in their last 14 Bundesliga games, including a recent Champions League win over Real Madrid. They have scored 100 goals this season, just one shy of equalling their Bundesliga single-season record from 1971/72. Their attack, led by striker Müller, is prolific, averaging over 3 goals per game in the last 5 outings.

Home advantage offers little relief for St. Pauli, who have a poor home defensive record and a limited goal output of 0.8 per game. Bayern’s dominance in recent head-to-head clashes, winning the last five meetings with over 2.5 goals in four of those, further tilts the balance. With Bayern’s clinical scoring and St. Pauli’s defensive frailty, the edge lies clearly with the visitors, who hold a 74% win probability.

Team Form

St. Pauli’s recent form is poor, with just 2 points from their last 5 games and a leaky defense conceding heavily. Their scoring remains low and heavily dependent on set pieces.

Bayern’s form contrasts sharply, with 4 wins and a draw in their last 5, scoring 15 goals and conceding only 3, highlighting their balance and offensive firepower.