Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 | 70% Win Chance & Odds

Match Preview

Borussia Dortmund hosts SC Paderborn 07 on September 12, 2026, in a Bundesliga fixture where Dortmund holds a clear advantage. Dortmund sits comfortably above the relegation zone, having collected 10 points from their first five matches, while Paderborn remains near the bottom, trailing by four points. Dortmund’s forward Reus has been pivotal, contributing 3 goals in the opening five rounds.

Dortmund’s home form is solid, scoring 9 goals in their last 4 home matches, with 60% of recent home games exceeding 2.5 goals. Defensively they concede at a manageable rate of 0.8 goals per game at home. Conversely, Paderborn struggles away, with only one clean sheet in their last 7 away fixtures and having conceded 12 goals in their last 5 matches overall.

Paderborn’s defensive frailty and poor away record are clear liabilities. Dortmund’s attacking consistency and home dominance give them a strong edge. Statistical models back this up, with Dortmund’s win probability around 70%. Expect Dortmund to control the game and capitalize on Paderborn’s defensive weaknesses.

Team Form

Dortmund’s recent run shows consistent offensive output and solid defense, especially at home. Paderborn’s form is patchy, with defensive lapses undermining their efforts despite occasional resilience.

Paderborn’s lone win in their last five came at home, highlighting their continuing away troubles. Dortmund’s balance between attack and defense remains their strength.