Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg | Prediction & 55% Win Chance

Match Preview

Union Berlin host VfL Wolfsburg on April 18, 2026, in a Bundesliga fixture where both sides seek to consolidate their European qualification bids. Union Berlin currently sit four points above the relegation zone but have struggled defensively at home, conceding 9 goals in their last 5 home matches. Their recent form is mixed, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last five games, scoring 7 goals in that span.

Wolfsburg arrive with a slightly better recent record, securing 3 wins and 2 draws in their last five outings, scoring 9 goals but conceding 6. Their away form is somewhat inconsistent, with only one clean sheet in the last 7 away matches. Key striker Richter leads Wolfsburg’s attack with 12 league goals this season, and his finishing will be crucial against Union Berlin’s leaky defense.

Head-to-head stats show a balanced rivalry, but Wolfsburg’s sharper recent form and higher goal output give them a slight edge. Union Berlin’s defensive vulnerability at home remains a key weakness. Expect a competitive game where Wolfsburg’s attacking edge and overall steadiness on the road could tip the scales.

Wolfsburg hold the edge here due to their superior recent form, goal-scoring consistency, and Union Berlin’s defensive lapses, making them marginal favorites at around 45% implied win probability.

Team Form

Union Berlin’s defensive fragility at home is notable, conceding nearly two goals per game in recent matches. Wolfsburg’s more consistent scoring and fewer goals conceded reflect better defensive organization, even if their away clean sheets are rare.