RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin | Prediction & 62% Win Chance ·

Match Preview

RB Leipzig host Union Berlin on April 24, 2026, with Leipzig third in the Bundesliga on 59 points after 30 games, aiming to consolidate their UEFA Champions League qualification spot. Their home form remains strong, scoring 23 goals in 15 games at the Red Bull Arena, while conceding 15, reflecting a moderately tight defense but some vulnerability.

Union Berlin sit 11th with 32 points from 30 matches, struggling for consistency and scoring only 28 goals all season. Their away record is patchy, with just one clean sheet in their last seven Bundesliga road games, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per away match. Missing key players due to injuries and suspensions will further test their defensive stability.

Leipzig’s star forward, Müller, has netted 14 league goals this season, providing a crucial attacking outlet. Union Berlin’s defensive issues and poor away form give Leipzig a clear edge. However, Union’s resilience and counter-attacking threat mean Leipzig cannot expect an easy victory.

Given Leipzig’s superior points tally, home advantage, and attacking edge, they hold about a 65% chance to win, but defensive lapses suggest a tight scoreline. Expect a controlled home win with limited goals.

Team Form

Leipzig’s form has been solid with three wins and one draw in their last five, scoring nine goals and conceding five, showing effective attacking transitions but some defensive lapses. Union Berlin’s recent form is poor, with three losses in five and only four goals scored, highlighting their offensive struggles.

Leipzig’s ability to capitalize on chances contrasts with Union’s defensive fragility, especially away from home, where their recent record is weak.