18 April 2026
St. James' Park, Newcastle, Premier League
Newcastle vs Bournemouth | Prediction & 62% Win Chance ·
Match Preview
Newcastle United host AFC Bournemouth at St. James' Park on April 18, 2026, with Newcastle positioned 12 points clear of the relegation zone, offering some breathing room. Their recent form is mixed, with two losses in the last five games (LLWDL), but they have scored 9 goals in their last 4 home matches, showing offensive potency at St. James’. However, defensive vulnerabilities remain, having conceded 7 goals in their last 4 league games overall.
Bournemouth arrive on an 11-match unbeaten streak in the Premier League but have drawn their last five games (DDDDD), indicating a struggle to convert form into wins. Their away record is patchy, with only 7 goals scored on the road this season, relying heavily on Antoine Semenyo, who has netted 10 goals in total. Bournemouth’s defense has been resilient but lacks cutting edge upfront, averaging just 0.8 goals per away game.
Bruno Guimarães leads Newcastle with 9 league goals and is pivotal in midfield creativity. Bournemouth’s inability to secure wins recently, combined with Newcastle’s better home goal rate, gives the hosts a slight edge. Newcastle’s defensive lapses might invite pressure, but their home scoring form and league position suggest they are favored to take at least a point here. Newcastle win probability sits near 55% given these factors.
Team Form
| Team | Last 5 | Goals For | Goals Against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | LLWDL | 9 (last 4 home) | 7 (last 4) |
| Bournemouth | DDDDD | 0.8 (away avg) | 5 (last 5) |
Newcastle’s recent home goal-scoring contrasts with Bournemouth’s inability to convert draws into wins, highlighting a lack of finishing for the visitors. Bournemouth’s solid defensive form has kept games tight but also limited their attacking threat.
NewcastleDBournemouthDNewcastleLBournemouthDNewcastleDBournemouthWBetting Odds
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
Newcastle’s odds under 2.00 reflect their home advantage and slightly better form, while Bournemouth’s draw-heavy recent run is priced at 3.50, offering some value if you expect a tight game.
Our Prediction
Newcastle favored by home scoring and league position edge; Bournemouth’s draw streak and low away goals keep this tight but with goals at both ends expected.
Best Bet
- Draw No Bet – Newcastle (≈1.70) — Newcastle’s home scoring form and Bournemouth’s draw streak make backing Newcastle with a safety net a sound choice.
- Both teams to score – Yes (≈2.10) — Newcastle’s defensive lapses and Bournemouth’s reliance on Semenyo make goals at both ends likely despite tight overall results.
- Over 1.5 total goals (≈1.50) — Newcastle’s recent home scoring (9 goals in 4 games) supports a match with at least two goals.
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This prediction is solely subjective and cannot be considered as true or reliable information.