17 April 2026
Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens, Ligue 1


Lens vs Toulouse Prediction | 62% Home Win Chance · Injuries
Match Preview
Lens sits comfortably in Ligue 1 with a 19-2-7 record, accumulating 59 points, well clear of relegation and pushing for European qualification. Their home form is solid, averaging 1.8 goals per game at Stade Bollaert-Delelis. However, defensive absences loom large with Jonathan Gradit sidelined due to a lower leg fracture, alongside Régis Gurtner and Amadou Haidara, potentially weakening their backline.
Toulouse, on the other hand, hold a 10-7-11 record with 37 points, flirting with the lower mid-table zone. Their away record is less convincing: only one clean sheet in their last seven road games and conceding at a rate of 1.7 goals per match away from home. Top scorer Yann Gboho has netted 8 goals but is missing key players like Frank Magri and Charlie Cresswell, which could blunt their offensive potency and defensive stability.
Lens has scored 9 goals in their last 4 league matches but conceded 5 in the same span, highlighting some defensive vulnerabilities. Toulouse’s inconsistency on the road and injury woes put them at a disadvantage. Lens’s offensive depth with Edouard (12 goals, 3 assists) provides a clear edge. Given the absences and home advantage, Lens holds a 65% implied win probability heading into this fixture.
Team Form
| Team | Last 5 | Goals For | Goals Against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | W W L W D | 13 | 7 |
| Toulouse | L D W L D | 6 | 10 |
Lens’s recent form is strong, with four wins in their last six league matches, showing offensive consistency. Toulouse’s patchy results and defensive fragility continue to hamper their ability to secure points, especially away from home.
Betting Odds
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.55 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
Lens’s odds reflect their strong home form and squad depth, offering limited value. The draw and Toulouse win are long shots given current form and injuries.
Our Prediction
Lens favored due to superior home form and key offensive players, while Toulouse’s defensive weaknesses and injuries limit their scoring threat, pointing to a home win with limited goals.
Best Bet
- Home win & Under 3.5 goals (≈1.70) — Lens’s attacking firepower paired with defensive injuries suggests a controlled win without a high-scoring shootout.
- Both teams to score: No (≈2.10) — Toulouse’s away defensive record and key injuries make scoring here unlikely, while Lens should find the net.
- Home Over 1.5 goals (≈2.90) — Lens’s home scoring rate and Edouard’s form support multiple goals from the hosts.
Bet Strategy
Use our System Bet Calculator to calculate optimal betting combinations for this match.
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