26 April 2026
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence, Serie A


Fiorentina vs Sassuolo Prediction | 62% Win Chance · Best
Match Preview
Fiorentina hosts Sassuolo at Stadio Artemio Franchi aiming to consolidate their position in Serie A. Fiorentina sits comfortably above the relegation zone, holding a four-point cushion, while Sassuolo battles inconsistency and remains outside European contention. The home side has collected 10 points from their last 5 league matches (W3 D1 L1), scoring 9 goals in that period, reflecting solid offensive output.
Fiorentina’s home form stands out in the league, with 2.1 goals scored per game at Artemio Franchi and only 0.8 conceded, highlighting a strong defensive setup. Key forward Vlahović continues to spearhead their attack, contributing 12 league goals this season. Meanwhile, Sassuolo struggles on the road, with just one clean sheet in their last 7 away fixtures and conceding an average of 1.6 goals per away game.
Sassuolo’s defensive frailties away from home and inability to convert chances consistently (scoring 5 goals in last 5 away matches) remain concerns. Fiorentina’s edge lies in home resilience and sharper goal threat. Given these factors, Fiorentina is favoured with an implied 55% chance to win, though Sassuolo’s counterattacking potential suggests a competitive encounter.
Team Form
| Team | Last 5 | Goals For | Goals Against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | WWDLW | 9 | 5 |
| Sassuolo | LDWLD | 6 | 8 |
Fiorentina’s recent victories highlight their ability to capitalize at home, especially through Vlahović’s finishing. Sassuolo’s mixed results reflect their struggle to maintain consistency, especially defensively on the road.
Despite Sassuolo’s resilience in some matches, their inability to keep clean sheets away undermines their chances. Fiorentina’s stable defense and superior goal return offer a tangible advantage.
Betting Odds
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
Value appears strongest backing Fiorentina’s home win given their superior form and Sassuolo’s poor away record. The draw is priced attractively but less likely based on recent scoring patterns.
Our Prediction
Fiorentina favoured at home due to superior scoring and defensive stats, with Sassuolo’s away leaks and goal threat shaping a likely 2-1 home win and goals at both ends.
Best Bet
- Home & Over 1.5 Goals (≈1.90) — Fiorentina’s strong home scoring record and Sassuolo’s defensive vulnerabilities suggest at least two goals, with the hosts likely to prevail.
- Both teams to score: Yes (≈2.10) — Sassuolo’s away defense concedes frequently, and Fiorentina’s attack should find the net, making both teams scoring a realistic outcome.
- Draw No Bet: Home (≈1.65) — Provides a safety net if Fiorentina fails to win but remains the safer side given their home advantage and Sassuolo’s away struggles.
Kickoff has passed — voting is closed. Final crowd split below.
Bet Strategy
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