13 April 2026
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence, Serie A


Fiorentina vs Lazio Prediction | Home Win 41% | Lineups &
Match Preview
Fiorentina hosts Lazio at Stadio Artemio Franchi aiming to capitalize on a recent upswing. The Viola sit 15th in Serie A with 32 points, just above the relegation zone by a narrow margin. They remain unbeaten in their last four matches, collecting 8 points and scoring 9 goals across those games, showing an improved offensive output after a shaky start to the season.
Lazio, positioned 9th with 44 points, comes in undefeated in five matches across all competitions. Their defensive solidity stands out, conceding only 3 goals in those 5 games, but their away form has been less convincing, with just one clean sheet in their last 7 away fixtures. Immobile remains a constant threat upfront but has struggled to convert consistently on the road.
Fiorentina’s defensive record is a concern, having conceded 9 goals in their last 4 home games, exposing a vulnerability Lazio may exploit. With suspensions and injuries impacting both sides, the match could hinge on tactical discipline and set-piece efficiency. Fiorentina’s home form and attacking momentum give them a slight edge, reflected in a 41% implied win probability versus Lazio’s 29%. This is a closely poised encounter but Fiorentina’s recent scoring form tips the balance.
Team Form
| Team | Last 5 | Goals For | Goals Against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | WDWWD | 9 | 5 |
| Lazio | WWDWD | 7 | 3 |
Fiorentina’s recent scoring has improved sharply, with 9 goals in their last five games, all at home, indicating a more aggressive approach. Lazio’s defense is tighter, having conceded only 3 goals in the same period, but their away performances have lacked clean sheets, highlighting a potential weakness.
Both teams have shown resilience, but Lazio’s lower goals conceded contrasts with Fiorentina’s higher scoring rate, suggesting a contest between attacking confidence and defensive discipline.
Betting Odds
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
Odds favor Fiorentina slightly, reflecting their home scoring form and Lazio’s inconsistent away defense, making the home win a fair value bet.
Our Prediction
Fiorentina’s improved home scoring and Lazio’s away defensive struggles tilt the match in favor of the hosts, with both sides likely to score in a moderately high-scoring game (home win ~41% probability).
Best Bet
- Both teams to score: Yes (≈1.80) — Fiorentina’s 9 goals in recent matches and Lazio’s consistent attack despite defensive lapses create a strong likelihood both sides find the net.
- Home win (≈2.40) — Fiorentina’s unbeaten home form and attacking improvements give them the edge over Lazio’s shaky away defense.
- Over 1.5 total goals (≈1.55) — Recent scoring trends from both teams, especially Fiorentina’s 9 goals in 5 matches, support a game with at least two goals.
Bet Strategy
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