11 April 2026
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre, Ligue 1


Auxerre vs Nantes Prediction | Home Win Chance 62% · Odds &
Match Preview
Auxerre and Nantes meet at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps on April 11, 2026, with both sides entrenched near Ligue 1’s relegation zone. Auxerre currently sit four points above the drop, having scored only 24 goals in 29 matches (0.83 per game) while conceding 38. Their home form is slightly better, with 2 wins in the last 5 at home but a leaky defense that allowed 9 goals in the last 4 league games.
Nantes arrive struggling offensively, netting just 20 goals this season (0.69 per game) and failing to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches. Their defensive record is marginally better, but recent form shows only 1 win in their last 5 Ligue 1 games. Ludovic Blas remains their key attacker, but the team’s inability to convert chances has been costly.
Historically, these sides have traded tight results, but Auxerre’s home edge and slightly better recent form grant them a narrow advantage. Nantes’ poor away scoring and lack of clean sheets in their last 7 away fixtures tilt the balance towards a low-scoring Auxerre win or draw. Auxerre have the edge due to home solidity and marginally better momentum.
Team Form
| Team | Last 5 | Goals For | Goals Against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | LWDLW | 7 | 11 |
| Nantes | LDLWD | 4 | 8 |
Auxerre’s recent form shows inconsistency but a slightly higher goal return than Nantes over the last five matches. Nantes’ away struggles are reflected in just 4 goals scored and 8 conceded in this period, highlighting their difficulty in breaking down defenses on the road.
Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, but Auxerre’s ability to score at home provides a small edge heading into this match.
Betting Odds
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
The odds suggest a slight home favorite, but the market is pricing this as a close contest with value in both a home win and away draw no bet options.
Our Prediction
Auxerre’s home edge and Nantes’ poor away scoring tilt this to a low-scoring Auxerre win or draw scenario, with value leaning towards home double chance and under goals.
Best Bet
- Home Double Chance (1X) (≈1.55) — Auxerre’s home form and Nantes’ poor away scoring make this a solid safety net to cover a narrow home win or draw.
- Both teams to score: No (≈2.10) — Given Nantes’ recent struggles to find the net away and Auxerre’s leaky but cautious defense at home, a low-scoring game with only one side scoring is likely.
- Correct score 1-0 (≈4.50) — Auxerre’s slight home edge combined with defensive frailties on both sides points to a close game decided by a single goal.
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Bet Strategy
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