25 April 2026
Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz, La Liga


Alaves vs Mallorca | La Liga Prediction · Best Bet Draw No
Match Preview
Alavés host Mallorca in La Liga on April 25, 2026, with both sides seeking to consolidate their league status. Alavés currently sit four points above the relegation zone, having collected 7 points from their last 5 matches (W2 D1 L2). Their home form is patchy, scoring just 5 goals in 7 games at Mendizorrotza while conceding 11, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities that Mallorca could exploit.
Mallorca arrive in relatively better shape, with 9 points from their last 5 and a more balanced attack averaging 1.2 goals per game on the road. Their defensive record away is tighter, conceding only 7 goals in 8 away fixtures. Forward Salva remains their key threat, netting 8 league goals this season and providing a focal point in attack.
Recent head-to-heads suggest tight contests, with Alavés conceding 9 goals in their last 4 league matches overall. Mallorca’s steadier away form and sharper finishing give them an edge, though Alavés’ home pressure and desperation to avoid slipping closer to the drop zone cannot be discounted. The edge leans slightly towards Mallorca due to their consistency and defensive stability, but a low-scoring draw is a realistic outcome. Win probabilities: Mallorca 38%, Draw 34%, Alavés 28%.
Team Form
| Team | Last 5 | Goals For | Goals Against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alavés | WDLWL | 8 | 9 |
| Mallorca | WDWLD | 10 | 7 |
Alavés’ inconsistency at home continues to be a concern, especially their defensive lapses that have led to conceding over 1.5 goals per home game this season. Mallorca’s recent away results show resilience, with only one loss in their last five road games.
Salva’s goal threat remains a key factor for Mallorca, whereas Alavés rely heavily on collective effort rather than a standout scorer. The home team’s defensive fragility contrasts with Mallorca’s more disciplined backline.
Betting Odds
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
Odds reflect a balanced contest with a slight edge to Mallorca, offering decent value on the away win given Alavés’ defensive issues at home.
Our Prediction
Mallorca’s defensive edge and Salva’s scoring tilt the match slightly in their favor, but Alavés’ home urgency suggests a low-scoring game with draw no bet on Mallorca as best value.
Best Bet
- Draw No Bet: Mallorca (≈2.10) — Mallorca’s superior recent form and defensive stability provide a safety net against Alavés’ home inconsistencies, making this a solid risk-adjusted pick.
- Under 2.5 Goals (≈1.65) — Both teams have struggled to score freely; combined with cautious tactics, this match is likely to stay under three goals.
- Both Teams to Score: No (≈2.80) — Alavés’ defensive lapses are often punished, but Mallorca’s organized defense should limit Alavés to few goals, and Mallorca’s own scoring may be contained by a motivated home side.
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